23º SINAPE - Simpósio Nacional de Probabilidade e Estatística

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Título

Uma análise sobre duas medidas de evidência: p-valor e s-valor

Data de titulação

04/08/2016

Instituição de titulação

Universidade de São Paulo

RESUMO (abstract)

This work aims to study two measures of evidence, namely: the p-value and s-value. The likelihood ratio statistic is used to calculate these two evidence measures. Informally, the p-value is the probability of an extreme event under the conditions imposed by the null hypothesis, while the s-value is the greatest confidence level of the confidence region such that the parameter space under the null hypothesis and the confidence region have at least one element in common. For both measures, the smaller are the respective values, the greater is the degree of inconsistency between the observed values and the null hypothesis. In this study, we will consider simple and composite null hypotheses and it will be restricted to independently and normally distributed data. The main results are: 1) to obtain the analytical formulas for the p-value, by using conditional probabilities, and for the s-value, and 2) to compare the p-value and s-value under different scenarios, namely: known and unknown variance, and simple and composite null hypotheses. For simple null hypotheses, the s-value coincides with the p-value, and for composite null hypotheses, the p-value and the s-value relationships are complex. In the case of known variance, if the null hypothesis is a half-line the p-value is smaller than the s-value, if the null hypothesis is a closed interval the difference between the two measures of evidence decreases with the interval width specified in the null hypothesis. In the case of unknown variance and composite hypotheses, the s-value is smaller than the p-value when the value of the s-value is small.

Área

Inferência Estatística

Autores

ERITON BARROS DOS SANTOS